【报告人】：Bruce R Ellingwood 院士

【主  题】：Managing risks to civil infrastructure due to natural hazards: communicating long-term risks due to climate change

【时  间】：2014年6月9日（星期一）10:00～11：30

【地  点】：科学会堂

【主  办】：研究生工作部

 

    Dr. Ellingwood currently is Distinguished Professor at Colorado State University. He is internationally recognized as an authority on structural load modeling, reliability and risk analysis of engineered facilities, and as a leader in the technical development and implementation of probability‑based codified design standards for building structures. Dr. Ellingwood directed the development of the probability-based load criteria for limit states design that appear in ASCE Standard 7 on Minimum Design Loads, the AISC Specification for Structural Steel Buildings, and ACI Standard 318 on Structural Concrete.

    He has authored over 400 research papers and reports, is Editor of Structural Safety, and serves on five other editorial boards.  He has held numerous leadership positions in professional societies, and his research and professional service have garnered numerous awards from the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Institute of Steel Construction and other professional organizations. Dr. Ellingwood is a member of the National Academy of Engineering。

    Bruce R Ellingwood教授现任佐治亚理工大学土木与环境工程学院特聘教授，美国工程院院士，国际公认的结构安全评估和风险分析领域的权威。他主导了基于概率的极限状态设计准则的发展，并引领着建筑结构设计规范的逐步完善。Ellingwood教授现为结构防灾领域最具影响力的期刊Structural Safety的主编，同时兼任其他五本著名学术期刊的编委。Ellingwood教授曾任美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）标准委员会副主席、结构工程师协会主席。多次荣获美国土木工程师学会各种奖励，同时还是美国土木工程师学会杰出荣誉会员。Ellingwood教授共发表学术论文300余篇，SCI论文超过200篇。此外，他在教育方面也有杰出贡献，在他指导下的博士生遍布世界各地、活跃于国际学术界和工业界。另外值得一提的是，Ellingwood教授对中国学生非常欣赏，共指导了10余名中国留学生获得博士学位，在所有国家中是最多的。

 

    Hurricanes and tropical cyclones, tornadoes, earthquakes and floods are paramount among the most devastating and costly natural disasters affecting the economic, social and political well-being of modern society and impacting civil infrastructure.   The potential exists for even larger losses in the future, given that population and infrastructure development in hazard-prone areas worldwide are increasing dramatically.  Notwithstanding recent advances in natural hazards assessment, uncertainties in natural hazard occurrence, intensity and the response of buildings, bridges, transportation networks and lifelines are among the largest of the uncertainties that confront engineers and managers of civil infrastructure.  The interdependence of spatially distributed civil infrastructure facilities must be considered when assessing their performance during and following the occurrence of extreme hazards, which typically have large geographic footprints.  Moreover, the potential effects of global climate change on both the frequency and severity of extreme events from natural hazards and their effect on civil facilities have become a major concern for decision makers.   Finally, certain civil infrastructure facilities have service periods that may extend well beyond the service lives of 50 – 100 years that have been traditional for most civil infrastructure projects.  Risk-informed decision frameworks that consider facility performance over service periods that extend across multiple generations have received only limited attention.   Management of the risk that civil infrastructure will fail to perform as intended must be an interdisciplinary effort, one that involves the coordinated activities of engineers, computer and information technologists, social/behavioral/economic scientists and regulatory authorities. This presentation will highlight some of the significant research challenges facing these disciplines, both individually and collectively, and will emphasize the need to embrace uncertainty and communicate risk at different levels to persuade decision-makers of the need for appropriate action.

    强风，地震和洪水是对现代基础设施最具破坏力的主要灾害，其未来引起的潜在风险随着人口的增加及基础设施的发展而显著增大。尽管最近在自然灾害评估方面科学取得一些进展，但自然灾害发生的概率，烈度及其对基础设施，生命线工程作用下反应的不确定性，依旧是摆在基础设施工程师和管理者面前的最大问题。另外，全球气候变化对极端灾害出现的频率，强度以及对基础设施的作用影响也成为决策人面临的主要问题。对于大多数服务期限已超过50-100年的基础设施，后服务期跨年代的性能评估及灾害预警方法的研究也刚刚起步，只有通过土木，信息工程师以及社会学家，经济学家的相互合作才能实现对基础设施灾害预警及性能评估的有效管理。

   本次演讲将介绍一些相关学科面临的重大研究挑战，并提出了决策者必须依据的不同层级不确定性及风险所应采取的相应措施。